Democrats' Abortion Strategy Falls Short

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Democrats’ efforts to link former President Trump and Republicans to abortion bans across the U.S. appeared to have less impact on voters in Tuesday's elections.

While the issue was central to Democratic victories in the 2022 midterms and in Virginia’s 2023 elections, the party struggled to gain traction with key voter groups this time around.

A CNN exit poll showed that abortion ranked as the third most important issue for voters, behind democracy and the economy. Despite 65% of voters supporting legal abortion in most or all cases, the issue did not seem to translate into support for Democrats or result in backlash against Trump and other Republicans, undermining claims that abortion could be a decisive issue for the GOP in 2024.

National Right to Life President Carol Tobias pointed out that Trump's stance—opposing a national abortion ban—undermined Democratic messaging. “Trump made it clear he didn’t support a national ban, but Democrats kept pushing that he did, and it just didn’t resonate,” she said.

Abortion became a key issue for Democrats after the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022, blunting what had been expected to be a Republican "red wave." The issue continued to energize Democratic voters through the 2023 cycle, helping the party secure full control of Virginia's state legislature, enshrine abortion protections in Ohio’s constitution, and re-elect Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

Heading into the 2024 election, Democrats doubled down on abortion as a motivating issue for their base. Vice President Kamala Harris framed the fight over abortion as one for freedom and justice during a campaign event in September, pointing to Trump’s role in selecting Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade.

But while Democrats maintained that abortion was a central issue, Republicans argued that the focus on abortion was less effective in a presidential race than in midterms or off-year elections. A GOP strategist noted that voters in a presidential election are more focused on the future direction of the country, with the economy being a dominant concern. "It was always going to be about the economy," the strategist said, referencing political strategist James Carville's famous "It's the economy, stupid" line. "They missed that."

Although abortion-rights advocates did score some victories on Election Day—such as successful ballot measures to protect abortion rights in Arizona and Maryland—abortion did not appear to be the winning issue for candidates at the top of the ticket.

Democratic strategists suggested that while abortion remained a potent issue, voters may have viewed it in isolation, separate from concerns like the economy. “It’s possible that voters didn’t connect abortion rights to broader issues like economic well-being,” said Christy Setzer, a Democratic strategist. “Ads focusing on women’s rights were powerful, but it seems Trump’s efforts to downplay the national ban resonated with voters.”

Virginia GOP strategist Zack Roday argued that voters’ priorities were different in a presidential election. "Voters hire a president to keep the country safe and tackle economic issues, and the contrast this year was that people felt Trump’s years were better than the Biden-Harris years," he said.

Still, abortion did not appear to hurt Democrats entirely. DJ Quinlan, former executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party, pointed to the success of the Arizona ballot measure as a boost for Democratic turnout.

However, some Democrats, including pollster Celinda Lake, argued that the party’s failure to prioritize economic messaging may have hurt them with blue-collar voters. "We have a fundamental weakness in our economic brand," Lake said. "We can’t win until we improve it."

Republican strategist Ford O’Connell also critiqued Democratic messaging on abortion, noting that not all women see abortion as their top concern. “People don’t want to be told what to think,” O’Connell said. “They want to feel heard.”

In the end, while abortion remained a key issue in certain states, it did not prove to be the decisive factor Democrats had hoped for in national races.